WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on February 11, 2025, provides key updates on U.S. and global agricultural markets, with shifts in wheat, corn, rice, and livestock sectors shaping the year’s economic outlook.

Wheat: Increased Domestic Use Lowers U.S. Ending Stocks

The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook shows a slight increase in domestic use, leading to a reduction in ending stocks. Food use projections increased by 4 million bushels to 970 million due to higher flour production. However, projected ending stocks declined by 4 million bushels to 794 million, though still 14% higher than last year. The season-average farm price remains steady at $5.55 per bushel.

Globally, wheat supplies are up slightly due to increased production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, world trade is expected to decline by 3 million tons, largely due to reduced exports from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports are projected at their lowest level in five years, dropping to 8 million tons.

Coarse Grains: Global Corn Production Declines

The U.S. corn outlook remains unchanged this month, though the projected farm price increased by 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. On the global front, coarse grain production is forecasted to decline by 1.8 million tons, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, where heat and dryness have impacted yields.

Lower second-crop planting progress in Brazil is contributing to reduced global supply. Additionally, corn exports are expected to decline from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. China’s corn imports are also projected to fall, though Vietnam and Chile may increase their purchases.

Rice: Higher U.S. Stocks Amid Reduced Exports

The U.S. rice market anticipates slightly higher supplies due to increased imports, particularly of long-grain rice from Thailand. However, lower medium- and short-grain shipments from China to Puerto Rico offset some of the gains.

Domestic use is projected at a record 166 million cwt, while exports are expected to decline by 4 million cwt due to sluggish sales in the Western Hemisphere. Ending stocks are estimated at 47 million cwt, marking the highest levels in a decade. The season-average farm price fell by $0.20 to $15.40 per cwt.

Globally, rice trade is projected to reach a record 58.3 million tons, with India’s exports driving the increase. However, reductions in production for Sri Lanka contribute to a slight drop in global ending stocks.

Oilseeds: Lower Global Soybean Stocks

U.S. soybean projections remain steady, though the season-average price has been lowered to $10.10 per bushel. Internationally, soybean production is expected to decline, particularly in Argentina and Paraguay, due to persistent heat and dryness. While Brazil’s output remains unchanged, regional weather conditions have created a mixed outlook for crop yields.

Soybean crush is up in Brazil, spurred by favorable margins and high demand for biofuel. However, reduced soybean meal exports from Paraguay have contributed to lower global ending stocks, now projected at 124.3 million tons.

Sugar: U.S. Supply Tightens, Mexican Production Falls

U.S. sugar supply projections were reduced by 101,129 short tons, raw value (STRV), reflecting lower cane sugar production in Florida and reduced imports. Meanwhile, sugar production in Mexico dropped from 5.094 million metric tons to 4.859 million, with lower sucrose recovery and a decrease in harvested area.

Domestic sugar deliveries for human consumption were cut by 75,000 STRV, contributing to a decrease in U.S. ending stocks, which now stand at 1.912 million STRV.

Livestock & Dairy: Beef Production Up, Poultry Impacted by Disease

The 2025 beef production forecast increased following the USDA’s latest Cattle Report, which estimated a larger calf crop and stronger placements in feedlots. APHIS also resumed cattle imports from Mexico under new protocols to prevent the spread of New World Screwworm.

Pork production is expected to rise due to heavier carcass weights, while broiler and turkey production forecasts remain mixed due to ongoing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. Egg production is also projected to decline due to HPAI-related flock reductions, though the industry is expected to rebound in the latter half of the year.

Beef prices are forecasted to rise throughout 2025 due to strong global demand. Meanwhile, turkey prices have been revised downward, reflecting weaker demand and recent market trends.

In the dairy sector, U.S. milk production projections have been reduced due to lower expected cow inventories. Cheese prices are expected to remain high due to tight inventories from 2024. However, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices have been revised downward.

Cotton: Minimal Changes but Lower Prices Expected

The U.S. cotton balance sheet saw little change this month, though domestic mill use was lowered by 100,000 bales. Ending stocks rose slightly to 4.9 million bales, and the season-average upland farm price declined to 63.5 cents per pound.

Globally, cotton production and ending stocks are slightly higher, with China accounting for most of the production increase. Meanwhile, higher imports by Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam are offset by lower Chinese demand.

The next WASDE report will be released on March 11, 2025.